Complexity Insights
A Research Practice Markets aren't in static equilibrium. Our models shouldn't assume they are.
Thesis

The standard model is a special case. Real economies are networks of adapting agents.

Equilibrium models solve a slightly different problem than the ones markets do. They tell us about prices in a world where rational, identical, and completed-adjustment agents meet, which is a nice theoretical result but not particularly useful for traders, firms, or supply chains.

The alternative is not to abandon rigor — it is to model behavior that is genuinely adaptive. Traders who learn. Firms that imitate. Shocks that propagate through network topology rather than dissipating smoothly across representative agents. The methods are now mature: agent-based models, calibrated networks, non-linear stochastic dynamics. The bottleneck is empirical: calibrating these models to real data and showing where they beat the standard ones.

And that is the research goal.

Fig. — Fitness landscapeADAPTIVE SEARCH
A rugged fitness landscape — a surface of peaks and valleys where height represents the payoff of a strategy.
A fitness landscape: every point a strategy, every height its payoff. Agents climb what they can see from where they stand — and the tallest peak is rarely the nearest one. Adaptation, not equilibrium.

“…it is now within our reach to understand complex human systems”

Eric Beinhocker · The Origin of Wealth, 2006 · Epilogue The book that first drew me to complexity economics.
Research areas

Four questions worth modeling properly.

Market simulation

How do pricing rules, launch dynamics, and trading strategies behave in synthetic populations of heterogeneous agents? Simulation surfaces failure modes that averages can't see.

Agent-basedMonte CarloCalibration

Supply-chain & exposure networks

Who actually depends on whom, two and three hops deep? Studying which nodes trigger cascades disproportionate to their size or spend.

Network scienceCentralityPercolation

Systemic & tail-risk indicators

Conventional VaR underestimates regime change. Do complexity-based indicators — correlation structure, critical slowing-down — give earlier warning of phase transitions that conventional models miss by construction?

Non-linear dynamicsCorrelation structureEarly warning

M&A & integration

What does network structure say about which deals create value and which integrations fail? Synergies live in the graph of who-talks-to-whom; so do the failures.

Graph analysisSynergy modelingIntegration risk
Writing & research

Working papers, projects, and case studies.

№ 001
Econometrics
United-Continental Merger Analysis A difference-in-differences analysis of 13.7 million observations finding the airline merger did not harm consumers.
UCM
LIVE →
№ 002
Market design
Designing a Better Job Market Why 12,000 people apply for 72 openings, and what it would take to fix it. Part I diagnoses the market; Part II simulates a deferred-acceptance clearinghouse against today's open applications, scored on match rank, direct and indirect experience, and income preferences.
JMD
In progress
№ 003
Data Pipeline
Data Ingestion Project Creating a multi-layer scraping, cleaning and standardization model to power ABMs.
DPL
In progress · Q4 2026
№ 004
Applied research
Banking deserts Spatial and network analysis of financial-access gaps.
BNK
LIVE →
Get in touch

Questions, critiques, and collaborations welcome.

If you have a question, a correction, or want to collaborate on research — or you're hiring for economic research — a direct note is the fastest path.

© 2026 Complexity Insights · Nicholas Thomas · Washington, D.C.