Market simulation
How do pricing rules, launch dynamics, and trading strategies behave in synthetic populations of heterogeneous agents? Simulation surfaces failure modes that averages can't see.
Equilibrium models solve a slightly different problem than the ones markets do. They tell us about prices in a world where rational, identical, and completed-adjustment agents meet, which is a nice theoretical result but not particularly useful for traders, firms, or supply chains.
The alternative is not to abandon rigor — it is to model behavior that is genuinely adaptive. Traders who learn. Firms that imitate. Shocks that propagate through network topology rather than dissipating smoothly across representative agents. The methods are now mature: agent-based models, calibrated networks, non-linear stochastic dynamics. The bottleneck is empirical: calibrating these models to real data and showing where they beat the standard ones.
And that is the research goal.
“…it is now within our reach to understand complex human systems”
Eric Beinhocker · The Origin of Wealth, 2006 · Epilogue The book that first drew me to complexity economics.How do pricing rules, launch dynamics, and trading strategies behave in synthetic populations of heterogeneous agents? Simulation surfaces failure modes that averages can't see.
Who actually depends on whom, two and three hops deep? Studying which nodes trigger cascades disproportionate to their size or spend.
Conventional VaR underestimates regime change. Do complexity-based indicators — correlation structure, critical slowing-down — give earlier warning of phase transitions that conventional models miss by construction?
What does network structure say about which deals create value and which integrations fail? Synergies live in the graph of who-talks-to-whom; so do the failures.
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